Tourney on PS.fr (I'm French, not bumhunting there like some of you guys :p), pretty much reg infested (french and foreign) at this stage. Structure is pretty good and deep. 50K are seats for EPT, 150K cash. Far from the money.

I chose to XR this flop on the felt, I think I can c-bet obviously, but I kinda like the XR with my image (unknown): it looks kind of fishy, I think he'll bet / call always with JTs, 98s, overpairs obv ; he could float with good backdoor draws and flushdraws, and wouldn't be surprised to see some light 3bets (that's what I'd expect from such a player, although my range is fairly strong opening from EP).

Turn is gin because it would be a great bluffing card for my bluffs that get there.

River I found it close. If I was playing cash game I'd shove this river almost always because my line is full of shit and I'd expect to be peeled wide. In MTT I guess it's a different story as survival has to be taken into account, therefore people are bluffing less and are much tighter turn and river IMO. Is it still a good spot to shove for value? Smaller sizing than shove (having less than a PSB)?

I expect sets to bet themselves if I check, but by checking I'm concerned that he'll check behind TT-QQ and AA, 98s, 88, hands that he could call (in a CG config at least). I could expect him to turn hands into bluff on this runout (only bluff without SD value seems to be JTs IMO), but not sure if he'll chose to do that (as he covers me) or to go to SD.

What's your take? Bet or check?