Folding AKs with 38 players left in a crazy spot
Posted by aTRIBE calledQUEST
Posted by
aTRIBE calledQUEST
posted in
High Stakes
Folding AKs with 38 players left in a crazy spot
First of all I have to start by saying that I am not crazy. Nor am I a nit. Read the info, put the "Lol you have AKs, never fold" voice on silence for a minute and just give this hand a different kind of view than "lol std".
I am playing at a non .eu site where the game and value is different from for instance pokerstars.eu. None of the great regs are on this site. I might be the best, or at least top 3 best tournaments players on this site. People are extremly bad and it actually took me longer than I though to readjust from the lag/taking-every-spot play I have in the .eu sites. To thighten up and super-explo take value from people. You will always get called.
Tournament info: We are 38 people left in one of their sunday "majors". It's a 100 euro bi 80k deep stack tournament.
Table: is extremely soft as the rest of the field but I got here 3 hands ago.
Hero on CO: 50bb
Hand: AKs
Action: Hijack (32bb stack) raises 2,5BB. Hero has 50bb on CO. BTN has 20bb, SB has 15bb and BB has 17BB. So hero calls hoping that somebody will make a move or just play post. SB shoves in for his 15bb. Hijack tanks 20 sec and shoves 32bb. Hero ??
My thoughts: When he got into the tank I started thinking about his range if he shoves. My logic says: "AKs, wiiee", specially because I have desguised my hand, but something within me feels wrong about just making a snap decision. Because only generelly on how people reason in this country/site. I think his range is down to 99+, AQs, AQo. Just to please the people who say that he can wake up with some kind of AJspew I added some hands and gave him this range: 88+,AJs+,AQo+. I am being generous about his range.
Against that range we have 51,782%. I don't think calling is EV-. But I think folding here is a better decision since we are in a very good spot in a super soft tournament. I am well aware of the fact that even if we loose, we will still have 18-20bb which I am very very comfertable with. But in this site you could raise J9 and flop JT4, turn 8, river 5 and most of these guys will give you two bigbet-streets of value, or three smaller bets of value with T7o. So having a 50bb stack, with 38 people left, in a tourament like this is like having money in very safe stocks. You will increase your stack steadily. But you have to be patient with the spots since nobody is folding.
Is it really worth calling AKs and being up against Hijacks 48,2% when we could fold, keep our stack, and steadily increase it? Our spot is so great and in a tournament with over thousand people I am not gonna get there often enough to just coinflip for 30bb. I think our stack and spot is worth much more keeping and steadily gaining chips than to just get it in.
What do you guys think? Does it sound to crazy or is there some logic here?
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