Exploitative Postflop Play, $11 ACR 2.5k GTD Early
Posted by MentalRunUp
Posted by MentalRunUp posted in Low Stakes
Exploitative Postflop Play, $11 ACR 2.5k GTD Early
Notes:
Starting stack got you 5,000 chips
Currently at 50/100/10
registration for another hour or two, not really sure, up to 10bb starting stack
I've been very active the last 10 hands. I've opened 4 hands, bet/folded a flop, won a small pot after showing down 59ss. I was playing too splashy in general, and was aware of it.
9 handed- all have around 50bb stacks except for a few 100bb stacks. I have 40bb. UTG has 80bb
UTG Raises to 2.95bb (table standard has been 2 or 2.5 the 3 orbits I've been here)
Hero UTG+2 raises to 8.50bb with JJ
Folds to UTG who calls.
Flop (19bb with 31.5bb behind) 4c 3s 7h
UTG checks.
Because I'm splashy, I assume villain's range to be AA sometimes, pairs like 22-99, AQs, AKo. I assume they'll 4bet get it in QQ+, AKs
Versus that range, I beat 22. 55. 66. 88. 99. AQs. AKo. That leaves AA, 33, 44, 77. 50 combos to 15 combos. I lose to a set no matter what I do. I get it in vs 88 and 99 no matter what I do. I think villain will simply give up and fold overcards vs any bet size. The hands that are left over that can be affected by my own decision making are 22, 55, 66, AQs, AKo. That's a huge part of the range I've assigned him. I think all of this leads to checking being the best option here. Checking can induce from all of those combos. The pot's so big that I never plan to fold. The bad turns are A and K. Queen only improves 4 combos (which becomes 3 combos) of the total range, so I don't think I mind it. Everything else is gold to get it in. Normally I'd cbet here, but because I thought about villain's range a little more, I went with this line.
UTG checks, I check.
turn (19bb, 31.5bb behind) 743r 7r
UTG shoves 31.5bb effective. Hero calls.
Thoughts?
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