Hey guys.
I have just been messing around in CREV with different spots and came across an interesting one I thought I'd throw out to the RIO members. The set up is we are on the button 50bb deep effective and open a range of:

The BB calls with a range of:

The flop comes:

The villain (BB) in this spot is known to be pretty aggro, likes to battle for pots postflop and is definitely capable of a light ch/rr. I gave us a range on this flop that can stand a ch/rr any 5x or 8x with a fd (9.99%), Overpair (1.3%), K hi fd or better (6.82%), Flush (4.99%) and TP+ with at least a 9 kicker (10%). TP+ range obv has all the sets and 2 pairs in it etc. This gives us a range we can defend v a ch/rr with of 33.1%.

I didn't split villains ranges into different categories I just worked out what he is continuing with. I said he continues with any 5x or better, any flush draw, any pair+fd so that includes 2h2x, any up and down straight draw and QT and Q9 as gutshots. With this range villain continues on this board in some fashion 71.4% of the time.

Here are my thoughts on a few different strategies:

1) Bet 1/3 pot with 100% of our range. This initially looks pretty good. He should fold 28.6% of the time with the ranges we gave him and the bet only has to work 25% of the time to be break even with our worst bluff. We obviously get value out of his continuing range with our strong hands and keep control of the betting lead for now. However there are a few negatives to this line as well. We are bloating the pot on a board where we have a pretty weak range overall against a player who will play back at us often enough. Our sizing means we probably get played back at more often since its going to be cheaper for him to ch/rr as a bluff. We are also going to a turn with a weak range very often since villain is not folding much.

2) Bet 3/4 pot or check, splitting our ranges. I found it really difficult with this line to balance out our check back range and also to get enough folds from villain to make it worth our while betting with many bluffs. Obviously the more value hands we take out of our betting range to strengthen our checking range means our value to bluff ratio in our betting range becomes less and less now leaving both our ranges pretty mediocre.

3) We check back 100%. This line means we keep the pot small and keep our range wide and disguised. We will have more information on the turn with one more card come and the fact that villain has to act first meaning we still have a chance to bluff our weak hands if checked to. We will also get value out of some bluffs villain might choose to make on the turn with stuff he folds to a flop bet. The negatives are that we give a free card with a lot of hands that are vulnerable. We are not gonna be too happy with J9o when turn comes 2h and villain leads! It also allows villain to attack turns and rivers pretty hard since we have trash about 50% of the time on a lot of turns.

I'm still very unsure what is the best way to play this kind of spot so hopefully you guys will be able to put some ideas in and we can figure out a good strategy here. Feel free to rip apart my analysis here too and point out any flaws in my thinking (I'm sure there are lots!).