Stat man hal: Determining required fold equity for an all-in bet is fairly straight-forward but getting the numbers right is a bit tricky. There are 3 parts to the EV equation.

1.Villain folds and you win the pot
2.Villain calls and you win the pot plus the amount villain has to call
3.Villain calls and he wins so you lose any amount you have to call plus your shove amount

Therefore, EV= fePot + (1-fe)EVcall,

where
fe = fold equity (prob. villain folds)
EVcall = eq(Pot + Call) - (1-eq)Bet
eq = probability you win if villain calls
Pot = amount in the pot before you shove
Call = amount villain has to call
Bet = amount you bet at the decision point

You set EV = 0 and find the required fold equity is

fe = EVcall / (EVcall – Pot)

Note if the result is negative, then break-even fold equity is zero.

For OP’s example, if I got the numbers and math right, break-even fold equity is 23.9%.

Breaking this down to analogize flatting 20-26bbs and shoving on any flop.
And then being in reverse position to think about the break even calling % vs player types.

ON a q-2-6 flop 2 suits with a 77% cbettor..and a 34% raise first in from their given position preflop.
Raise first in combos are = to around: KK+, JJ-77, 55-33, QdQs, QdQc, QsQc, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, AKs, AJs-A7s, A5s-A3s, KJs-K7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, QdJd, QsJs, QcJc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, Qd9d, Qs9s, Qc9c, Qd8d, Qs8s, Qc8c, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, AKo, AJo-A7o, A5o-A4o, KJo-K8o, JTo, T9o, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, Ad6h,

Cbet is equal to around: KK+, JJ-TT, 88, 33, QdQs, QdQc, QsQc, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c, AKs, ATs-A7s, KJs, K9s-K7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, QdJd, QsJs, QcJc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, AKo, A9o-A7o, A5o-A4o, KJo-K8o, JTo, T9o, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs

Of the Cbet, how much does he call look like? Cbet stat is at 26%
Calls with 6.72% so 26% of the time they c et call a check shove.

Cbet of 2500 into 5400 1 v 1 vs bb at 500-1k….
They shove… we need 42% equity vs a 25 bb stack………….
EV= fePot + (1-fe)EVcall,
For BE fe u set EV = to 0 on: fe = EVcall / (EVcall – Pot)
Not doing that here so: FE = : .33 * ( 7900 + 20500) – ( 1- .33) *20500 / .33 * ( 7900 + 20500) – ( 1- .33) *20500- 7900 = 35%

So the check shover needs the villain to be folding 35% of the time……………….
So the check shover is off by 9% equity vs the given range………..meaning the check shove is not profitable as a BLUFF. But with top pair, ur not bluffing…..or semi bluffing…..

Lets EV it out tho:
Shove, get a call, and win: .33 * 28400 = +9372 ev
Shove, get a call and lose: .67 * 20500 = -13735 ev
Shove and get a fold: 7900 * .74 = +5846 ev
+1483 u are realizing positive ev from a check shove…