Value Bluffing (part 1)
Posted by Daniel Dvoress
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Outstanding video Daniel!
I struggle to make any meaningful conclusions even though I spend quite a lot of time messing around with CREV (because my trees are way too complex), so the simplicity and pace of this intro was spot on imo.
Great video, really looking forward to the later parts. One question as far as your river assumptions that villain will always check both his trips and his air on the river. If we are up against an opponent who we suspect will lead the river with his trips, and balance appropriately with his bluffs, that is going to give us more incentive to bet the turn in these types of situations correct? You talked a little bit about how you thought the river play should influence our decision in the beginning but it wasn't super clear to me. If he bets all his trip aces, and balances appropriately with bluffs, it shouldn't matter what our plan is because we will have a zero EV spot every time he bets. So do we in a sense gain something by betting the turn to avoid being put into that zero EV river scenario VS a balanced player? I understand its going to depend a ton on how often he checkraises, but I just want to make sure I'm thinking along the right lines since this type of thing comes up all the time, even when ranges aren't so polar.
Your first statement is correct: if our opponent leads river for value and balances appropriately with bluffs, it gives us more incentive to valuebluff here. Where does this extra EV to give us this incentive come from? Best way to think of it is that you are basically bluffing to prevent being bluffed. You are correct that our EV is 0 whenever villain bets, but now in addition to us having an EV of 0 when he has us beat, there are those few times when he bluffs us and now our EV is 0 (when against an opponent who wouldn't lead river it wouldn't be).
Does that make sense?
It does make sense, thanks for the response. Your videos are by far my favorite on the site, please keep the theory related stuff coming.
Very nice job, looking forward for more complex spots!
Thank you for explaining this concept and proving it.
Instinctively I like to bet in these spots because I don't like to give villains a chance to realise any equity if I think I'm good. I'm so happy to see that this is correct. Even if they think you're light it's hard for them to do anything about it. This was definitely not too simple for me!
Very informative. Thank you and please continue this series.
Like this video, looking forward for others in this series, but i think it was a little bit slow. We can always pause anyway.
Very good concept ! Looking forward for the merged examples :)
I'd like to see faster pace for the CREV examples. :)
Enjoyed it a lot, definitely continue with the series.
Dig it! I think you're pretty one of a kind coach on RIO with your theoretical approach so definitely +1 for more parts. This might be too much of "essential program" stuff, but would it be too much to ask if you'd build one time a CREV tree on the fly? Or does it take just too much time from the actual content? I purchased CREV earlier this year, but I just can't get my head around that program and I haven't managed to produce any solutions with it yet.
I just feel like it would be a little frustrating for people who already know CREV to watch me build a tree on the fly and use up time, since it's just basically generic input. Some stuff I do on the fly, especially if it's changing things around and seeing how it impacts the EVs, but I always try to have the structure of the tree set up from the get-go.
If there was interest in an instructional series on how to use CREV I could do that but like you said I'm not sure RIO whether RIO would want an essential or an elite coach doing that.
the tutorials are pretty good http://www.cardrunnersev.com/videos.html
Love the content! Will watch the whole series for sure.
As a side note, if you could go slightly faster through what you want to explain I'd certainly appreciate it. I'm not talking about going straight into more complex scenarios. I'm sure you could of made an equally detailed and excelent video in like 30 min. I'm sure that as a fellow grinder you understand my concern. Anyway, keep up the great work!
This seems to be a recurring concern with my videos - I'll speed up the pace in the future.
@ZDARLIGHT23,
Have you tried the HTML5 player? It has variable playback speeds. I am addicted to playing all sorts of videos at >1x speed now (even in VLC or my phones media player) - very easy to understand what's being said at 1.25x and sometimes even 1.5x speed and get through videos in much less time.
Bit late to the party but loved this, thanks. Is there any difference between a value bluff and a protection bet?
It really depends on terminology but I think in most contexts both would mean the same thing. I initially wanted to avoid using "betting for protection" because I've heard the term used way too often during extremely fishy conversation (usually someone explaining that they bet when they have the best hand). So I wanted to use a term that was so overly fishy and drawing attention to its obvious possible flaws that it would be clear what context everything is meant within. I hope that makes sense! It does it my mind but perhaps I'm not explaining well.
Hi Daniel,
I am somebody who would almost always check back K and Q high for showdown value.
And bluff with less than T high at a mixed frequency.
The question is - how do you balance your range of betting and checking?
My bets would be - Ax or any pair for value, T high and gutshots as bluffs
My check would be - Kx, Qx, Jx and maybe weak 2s
What am I missing? From the analysis, it looks like we should not have a check range here and bet small at a frequency of nearly 100%. Is that correct?
Cheers,
G
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