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ProView : Steve Paul reviews Henry He at $25NL

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ProView : Steve Paul reviews Henry He at $25NL

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Steve Paul

POSTED Nov 20, 2014

Steve reviews hands that RunItOnce member Henry played at 25NL Zoom.

42 Comments

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oerbman 10 years, 4 months ago

This was very good Steve. Thank you.
It also shows me how unaware i am with stats and all. i feel lost looking into pokertracker^^.

Electric_Blue 10 years, 4 months ago

Great video again, thank you. Would be nice to see more of this kind of thing from 25-200 zoom regulars where getting a semi-reasonable sized database isn't too hard. I really like how you structured this one, spending some time going over a bunch of hands quickly to confirm what you suspected from hero's stats was refreshing, and i also really like the idea of reviewing common spots which occur often, instead of analyzing big pots which are rare and could be close either way.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

^Glad you guys liked it!
Before someone points it out, at 41 minutes I say you need to be good 42-43% to call a 75% pot river bet...unplanned math in your head is not a good idea, you need to be good 30% to call the river.
edit: 42-43% is how often a 75% pot bluff needs to work (.75/1.75) I assume that's where I came up with that number?

Robert Johnson 10 years, 4 months ago

was about to post the same : as soon as you said 75% pot size bet needs to work 42 %, I knew it was 30 % instead, because I have this simplified table memorized :

GTO simplified (OTR)

nitpicking ofc :-)

Good video with clear and useful explanations; so thanks for that :-)

oblioo 10 years, 4 months ago

hi Steve, I was excited to see a new video by you! One quick nitpicky thing if you don't mind: I noticed your "3bet BB vs. SB" stat is different from the "3bet IP vs. SB" stat (the first is 10, and the second is 9). Shouldn't they be the same value? Maybe the first takes into account times when SB is isolating and the other doesn't? Not sure if this is intentional or not.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

Hm, I'm not sure what that's about but your explanation makes a lot of sense. Definitely not intentional, I'll try to remember to look into it next time I'm at my desktop.

Henry He 10 years, 4 months ago

Thanks for Steve's help! I think I've got the direction for improvement, I will focus on calling 3b pre and constructing postflop cbet and calling range. May be it's uncomfortable for me to play 3bet pot with mid-strength hands now, but I'd tell myself to do that. Thanks again!

P.S: Is 13% raise cbet too high? I was told by someone that 10% raise cbet is 100% value, and 13% with additional bluff, is it correct? And what is the standard stats for raise cbet or check raise?

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

Calling 3 bets with medium strength hands is definitely not the most fun part of poker but it's something you have to do or else you just get run over. One thing I'd suggest is to add hands slowly to give yourself a chance to adapt to playing more hands. I've dumped a bunch of money after deciding to defend way wider but just not being comfortable with playing so many extra hands.

For raising cbets, I don't think I can say 13% is too high, as in I think you can definitely build a good strategy that raises cbets 13%. 10% raise cbet probably can be 100% value but definitely doesn't have to be. But if you're raising cbets 13% and folding to them 55% then something is wrong there (either you're raising too wide, or much likely you're folding too much)

JohnnyMcCash 10 years, 4 months ago

Enjoyed the video. One question; I'm curious what you might benchmark a good river call efficiency stat as?

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

I'm not really sure to be honest. Mine is around 1.1 but I make some pretty terrible river calls sometimes. So if I saw a number between 1.1 and 1.25 I wouldn't think too much of it. Outside of that I think it's worth looking into, though I didn't have time in this video to find hands where I think Henry missed a good river call.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

Filter for something like called turn folded river and look through some hands. Pick some that you think are close and figure out what range you get to the river with and how often you need to call for your opponent to be roughly indifferent to bluffing. Then make sure you're not folding way too much.

BrandonNoel0 10 years, 4 months ago

Watching some of those hands that were folded physically hurt me. Great video. Any videos with special mention of the huds is appreciated.

Q_High 10 years, 4 months ago

Thanks for the vid. really useful imo for both tracking ur own game + ur opponents by stats.

One question comes to mind when looking at this is: is there a "perefct" game\hud stats ?

I mean, as long as the data is logically consistant, that style of play can be proven profitable i guess..
Saying like: flop agg is X and that's pretty high\low, must be compared to a general known play style otherwise it can't have any ground to it.
so i guess what i'm asking is what's that "perfect"\default base u r refering to? (prolly limit based)
Is there any place i can get the stats for it ?

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

I have no idea what perfect is. I have a rough idea of a range of what I think is reasonable and if numbers are outside of that then I think it's worth looking into.
e.g. When I first looked at Henry's cbet numbers I thought they looked reasonable in that you can construct a good strategy that leads to those numbers. But you can have nice looking numbers but still have pretty big leaks - Henry wasn't defending his checks nearly enough as the pfr given his chosen cbet strategy.

I think aiming to get your hud stats to look like x is pretty counterproductive as you can play a dreadful strategy that gives you "nice" hud stats. For the most extreme example, you could open 16% utg: 85o-82o,75o-72o,62o+,52o+,42o+,32o.

sweet16 10 years, 4 months ago

Nice video, some rly good stuff for people who play like micro/lowstakes! However there was one thing that got me thinking.. What's your argument for cbetting Axs with a bd on K T 2r when we open MP and CO cc? I think it's extremely likely you are either "overbluffing" flop if you do this or your checking-range is to weak/overfolding vs stab flop when checked. I don't know, but personally I don't cbet much at all oop these days unless villain is weak/leaking and you said this wasn't supposed to be a video about exploiting more kind of a base-strategy. I would potentially cbet some of them, but just saying "we got a over and a bdfd -> reasonable to cbet" seems kinda ambitious when we play vs semi-strong / tight range oop assuming our villain isn't overfolding. If not we're going to have an ace like everytime we bluff since we can't have that many bluffcombos if we want to x/c some pairs as well, which doesn't sound good at all to me. This seems very exploitable to me.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

Well you're probably right that it's not a great example as if you cbet every single Ax bdfd you're going to have too many bluffs. But if you don't cbet any you certainly have too few bluffs. I'm also a bit confused by the second part of this sentence:

I think it's extremely likely you are either "overbluffing" flop if you do this or your checking-range is to weak/overfolding vs stab flop when checked. (emphasis mine)

If I check A7bdfd it's not to check/call so I don't see why cbetting this combo would make my checking range weaker. Quick check in flopzilla gives me 47 combos of TP+, another 36 of MP+, 40 combos of gutshots and a whole bunch of bdfd's. I would be cbetting a big chunk of that TP+, a small chunk of MP+, most of my gs (x/c some AQ, AJ) and so need some additional bluffs. Axs seems the next logical place to go for bluffing hands.

sweet16 10 years, 4 months ago

Yeah I didn't say we shouldn't cbet any of them.

"If I check A7bdfd it's not to check/call so I don't see why cbetting this combo would make my checking range weaker"

Because we have to control our frequencies, if we want to add bluffing hands into our cbetting range we have to add hands for value as well so our cbetting range isn't too weak. Which leads to our checking range getting weaker I suppose.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

Because we have to control our frequencies, if we want to add bluffing hands into our cbetting range we have to add hands for value as well so our cbetting range isn't too weak. Which leads to our checking range getting weaker I suppose.

This argument seems like a bit of a stretch. If you have two set ranges and you just have to place A7s is one, whichever one A7s goes into is now weaker.

sweet16 10 years, 4 months ago

Not sure if that's necessairly true since when removing bluffs we have to remove value hands as well to keep enough bluffs in our range. So to some extent It's true, but not entirely imo if we want to try being balanced. Just out of curiosity, what top pairs do you cbet in this spot in general? I find myself switching this a lot, and haven't rly made up my mind what I prefer as a standard play.

Steve Paul 10 years, 4 months ago

One other thing to consider is that the higher cbet strat we play the less important it is we defend our checks. So if you're playing a really high cbet strat then overfolding once you give up is just not a problem. If you want to play a lower cbet strat (which I generally do) then defending your checks becomes much more important.

I go back and forth a lot on cbetting decisions. I pretty much always cbet AK, almost always KQ, sometimes KJ and almost never K9s. I don't have actual ways of controlling frequencies, just how I feel at the time.

sweet16 10 years, 4 months ago

okay, Yeah I don't cbet much at all oop these days. Especially not in spots like this when you're facing a somehow tight range and quite strong as well. People are just playing way too well if you start cbetting too much in this spot oop imo.

Reds46 10 years, 4 months ago

Hi Steve! This video is awesome beacuse allows to do an "autoreview" of own game.
Curiosly i have like 95% of the leaks that you have noticed in Henry He :(!

By the way which filters have you used to pick out the hands where Henry folds too much?

Thank you :)

Ryback 10 years, 3 months ago

Nice video! Would certainly like to see more videos like this.

I have a question about the kind of spot where you recommend calling cbets with hands which have equity like overcards/backdoor draws etc. Like KsTs on AsJx5x or AKo on 234tt. What do we do on the turn when we miss especially when we are oop? It feels like we will just be check/folding turn quite a lot.

Steve Paul 10 years, 3 months ago

Yep, you check/fold turn a lot. You're getting a decent price and sometimes you hit a big hand, sometimes you turn equity, sometimes he doesn't bet turn.

AleTuz 10 years, 2 months ago

Hi Steve! It's a very useful video, especially for all microstakes players!
I have a question..what are for you in sb and bb position, the maximum bb/100 that we can lose? When they are acceptable? Thanks..

Steve Paul 10 years, 2 months ago

This is something I don't really know, and depends a lot on the games you're playing in. I'm under the impression that something like losing 30-45bb/100 in the bb and 15-25bb/100 in the sb is reasonable, but I could easily be off on either side. Last year I lost 21.5/42.5 in the sb/bb but I think my play from the blinds could use a lot of work.

IamIndifferent 10 years, 2 months ago

Old thread on 2plus2 discussing winrates by 6-max position

Quote from thread by Alan Jackson (well-known pro and coach):

I've spent some time studying blind win rates and -22bb/100 in the BB
and -11bb/100 in the SB is about as good as it gets long term. I'd get
concerned if I started approaching -30/-15

Don't know if these rates are still achievable in 2015 as quote dates from 2009. However, if anything, blind defense has gotten more aggressive not less.

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