Full Tilt Super Sized Sunday
Posted by Seth Davies
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welcome seth! did you build this hud ?
6:24 which A highs do you think "donkcomitted" bets on the turn ? I guess blocking 98s isn't that big of a concern but 99s certainly fall down a bit on the rank of bluff catchers on this river.
I don't expect much of a lead on this river that isn't a 5 since some "gadzilot" bluffs may lead turn (since rarely it is getting raised) as especially the non showdown value ones that can make AJ/AK fold to a double barrel with reasonably frequency. Check-calling turn and leading this particular river with bluffs doesn't seem to be a strategy that will generate enough fold equity to make this a profitable bet. What you think ?
29:27 I don't get it much when you say about nut blocker, J7/Q7. If you are never checking the turn with the nuts in position (game theory wise I guess it is reasonable to assume that), how can he use blocker value if you don't have those hands in your range ? You didn't say much about his river sizing. If he has better than T8s would he ever bet 8,200 into 20,500 ? This sizing allows him to have more thin value bets and it looks like to me a one pair hand.
32:15 do you consider leading small (12k-14k) this turn ? I guess it improves quite a bit your range and you are never getting an extra bet by a good portion of his light cbets but he would still call you with worse this turn, as T7s/76s.
I don't think he can raise liberally your lead given stack sizes and this board doesn't allow him to have the nutty offsuit combos (Axhh). It is usually a gross spot when he calls the turn lead and you check river and he bets. I guess it would only be gross if you check-call flop, lead turn and check river only the weakest part of your range (maybe A4o) and never do it with Kxhh, Qxhh.
I guess it is also a fine line with those hands since against the portion of his range that picks up equity OTT (and is probably not betting) and faces a check river there is so many combos pretty down on his range that he will overbluff this river.
How large would be (in a std payout structure) the ICM concern about taking a line that has higher variance like this ?
(english isn't my first language sorry if it confusing)
40:56 what pair hands that you are checking back flop and betting turn for value ? 87s+/66-44/A3+ ? If he don't slowplay premiums (which seems likely by player type) and is leading most Jx OTT I guess K3 is a reasonable value bet, Q3 is close.
43:17 what do you think about betting bigger this flop ? I guess his calling range that are draws t9/ahx/khx are more inelastic on the flop than on the turn so against this player I usually bet bigger on the flop and bet smaller proportionally on blankish turns since most of his draws won't be calling a large bet.
Sorry for so many words but it is your fault by making a very interesting video. :)
Hey Raphael, thanks for the welcome here and in the thread.
Yes, I custom built this whole HUD.
6:24 - I think it's very reasonable and good for DonkCommited to bet turn with AK/AJ for protection. Daniel Dvoress talks about this type of spot in his "Valuebluffing" series. I'm certainly not fist-pump calling river (as DonkCommited) but I think given that he can have some worse valuebets (88/77, A6, K6s) and getting 3 to 1 this has got to be a call.
29:27 - Yea, him having a nut blocker isn't really applicable here. I tried to say that at the end of that sentence by saying "any hand really." I should have clarified that him having a blocker doesn't matter. I think I should be raising river, it's just so hard for him to have me beat. Especially with K8/88 being so few combos. Good point about his sizing as well, that makes me want to raise more. Mistake by me here just calling.
32:15 - I think having a turn leading range is an OK idea. I'm not in love with it, though. Mainly because he still has all the nutty combos that I have. A lot of my range improves on this turn but so does his. I don't think this turn is good enough for my range, in relation to his, that I want to be leading a ton. I think ICM is a good thing to keep in mind here, like you mentioned. We significantly increase the likelyhood that we'll face a shove by the river if we lead the turn, something I want to avoid. It's hard to say exactly when the extra BB or so of chipEV is worth having to call down all-in, but I think in this particular spot/stack layout I would definitely prefer to take lower-variance lines if the EV's are running close. Even though I cover him here it's only by a few chips so we can treat it as if I was going to bust the tourney if we get it all in and I lose.
40:56 - I think I would want to start with A4 as my worst turn value bet IP here. Although I wouldn't mind betting my strong 3x as well as protection is very significant.
43:17 - I like what you said a lot. I think a bigger flop size works out nice here, especially with my specific holding. By betting small on the flop here I'm looking to keep his weaker made hands in. But, having a J and 8 myself significantly reduces those combos. So I'm facing strong draws so much more often that are calling any size. Good thought, I like it.
thank you a lot for the good answers (and the one to mike, that I'd ask after you answer those)
for the 32:15 hand I certainly agree. Since most of MTT players cbet flops too wide it is hard to define if some turn card is good for your range or his. much of fancy brazilianment hu stuff this play, sorry.
this one was awesome :D
hey man nice vid, I'm def looking forward to more. that was a sick check shove with the QThh early in the vid. ill be looking to throw that in in that spot, agree with ur logic there and thru out the vid. Its nice that you mentioned u are trying to be fundamentally solid, hopefully watching ur vid helps me to be less of a spewtard in some spots where I'm unsure.
Thanks man, appreciate it. See ya on the next one.
Welcome to the squad young Davies! If there is ever a RI1 flag football game, I got you first pick.
Thanks brother. You gotta love to lock up the first overall draft pick.
Looks like 2nd pick will have themselves a gem if that's the case
thx 4 the vid seth
Regarding the ATo hand: my initial reaction was to LOLyolo 4bet bluff there as well, but on 2nd thought I like not doing so for ICM reasons as you stated. If we aren't 4bet bluffing this combo given the ICM implications, then do we have a 4bet bluffing range at all? Or is it just 100% value? Seems like if our opponent knows this (darkhorse seems like a good plyr for sure) then he can just go ham sandwich 3betting most of our opens, of which the best way for us to adjust is probably to just open a much tighter range initially.
This got me wondering tho - what are we doing with hands that are more towards the middle of our range pre? Stuff like 77-99? Seems like 4bet-folding these as a bluff is a bad idea since they have no blockers, and flatting them OOP sux as well.
Thanks Mike. Yeah, if we're not bluffing our best combos it puts us in an awkward spot when it comes to a balanced 4bet range. If our opponent has enough history with us and/or knows my game well enough to know I'm never really 4b bluffing this spot than the adjustment would be to just be not having a 4b range and flat everything I'm continuing with. Which is totally reasonable although it does suck with those middle range hand like you said. But that's just the power of his 3b with this stack layout. Just gotta peel them and proceed with caution.
That being sad, I think in practice vs 95%+ of opponents I would still have an exploitable 4b range that's really value-heavy. I'm hard-pressed to believe many guys are going to be exploiting me by 3b/folding AKo and stuff in his shoes here.
What is your ID on Pokerstars? Is it Setherson2?
Great video!
Yes, Setherson2 on Stars. Thanks, I'm glad you like the vid. More to come soon.
Gratz on Big 109 win ;-) Would be nice to see that one!
Thanks! I just started going over it to make a vid. Recording part 1 tomorrow. It should be out soon, stay tuned.
Thanks Seth
No prob Tony, glad you're liking the vids.
Very nice first vid Seth!
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