top set vs good reg (live $10/$25) deep
Posted by BagOfSuck
Posted by
BagOfSuck
posted in
High Stakes
top set vs good reg (live $10/$25) deep
Villain is competent, big winner, hand reads well, always buys in deep to cover and probably views me as solid/TAG. We haven't really played too many big pots together, I normally stay out of his way.
$14k effective
Villain completes sb, I complete bb with KhKd7s4h, the hj and co limp, button checks.
Flop ($125): Kc 9s 7d
villain and hero check, hj bets $75, btn calls $75, villain c/r to $375, hero raises to $1250, villain calls.
Turn ($2775): 2d
Villain c/c $2800
River ($8400): 6s
Villain leads $6100... Hero?
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If you don't 3-bet the flop with naked QJT/TJ8 or middle set this deep, that skews your range heavily towards topset. Do you think your opponent knows this?
On the turn he calls a potbet out of position when backdoor diamonds come in. As cYde pointed out you hold the Kd so he cannot have hands with KdXd such as KJT9.
It seems that in this blind structure the sb is in a gigantic disadvantage, he should only play super premium hands, unless the games are very loose passive.
Against a reasonable tight range your equity is quite close here:
board: Kc 9s 7d 2d 6s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhKd7s4h 34.64% 618 0
QJT:[K,9,8,A],TJ8:[A,K,9,7,6],QJT:ddxx,TJ8:ddxx,Ad*d:KTJ 65.36% 1,166 0
He could be betting close to all his bluffs and make it very difficult for you.
If you had an 8 in your hand you have some card removal here:
board: Kc 9s 7d 2d 6s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhKd8s4h 40.09% 621 0
QJT:[K,9,8,A],TJ8:[A,K,9,7,6],QJT:ddxx,TJ8:ddxx,Ad*d:KTJ 59.91% 928 0
However if you play any suited KKxx and KK[9-A][9-A] and all double paired you have an 8 less than 20%.
And also you would be more inclined to raise with KKJ8 than KK74.
Also if he has really wide ranges here your equity goes up a lot:
board: Kc 9s 7d 2d 6s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KhKd7s4h 47.95% 2,115 0
QJT,TJ8,K[7-Q][7-Q][7-Q]!(TT,JJ,QQ):dd,Ad*d:(K9,K7):xxyy 52.05% 2,296 0
You should think about whether he still has TJ84 with no diamonds in his range. Also you want to think about the frequencies with which he calls or raises hands like AJT8, AQJT, JT98, TJ86 etc.
Also I would think about how deep the HJ and BTN are, if they are really deep that should lower the amount of JT8 combos significantly since 6/17 of its outs are not to the nuts. So that would likely imply that he has something good to go with it, two (high) backdoor flushes, a pair or a Q/6.
So given you hold the Kd and no 8 I think folding here is fine, because he has to be bluffing all his air and even then it is close.
Given the ranges you gave villain (which look like good approximations to me), our perceived image, ("solid/TAG. We haven't really played too many big pots together, I normally stay out of his way."), description of villain (big winner, hand reads well) and our face up flop/turn range I don't understand your conclusion that folding here is fine (though close).
Sure, villain has to be bluffing nearly all his air, but that seems entirely reasonable. This is the perfect bluff card against hero's face-up-set-heavy range. Even our very rare flop/turn semi-bluff range is poor in T8 combos compared to villain's range (it looks like a tighter version of his range without all the JT8 combos that will mostly just cold call his flop X/R). Our competent villain should be bluffing the 6s with all the hands he makes it to the river with in the range you described above (QJT:[K,9,8,A],TJ8:[A,K,9,7,6],QJT:ddxx,TJ8:ddxx,Ad*d:KTJ ). Hands that contain a King/block top set are the only hands he should consider not bluffing with, and given hero's line and the and the possibility that hero plays 99 combos in a similar way I think he convinces himself to bluff with these hands almost always as well.
We need to be good 29.6% here, and against villain's "reasonable tight range" that you give above we have 34.6. Given all this I don't see villain finding a check with 15% or more of the range he gets to the river with.
Because we still have KK with a diamond or KK with an 8, or 99 without a diamond or with an 8 in our range, this is not the very best hand to call with.
And we could also have T8 ourselves.
We should also look at the betsize of our opponent, he could've bet $8400 but he opted for $6100.
If our range consists for more than 50% out of sets, he can bluff all his air profitable if we fold all our sets. Clearly our perceived range consists for more than 50% out of sets. If his range has only 34.6% air hands relative to sets his play should be to potbet all his hands to make our sets close to indifferent.
But for some reason he didn't. There are a couple of possibilities:
1. His understanding of game theory is bad, he just does this because he is used to it.
2. He does not try to construct optimal ranges, rather tries to exploit ours.
3. He thinks bluffing $8400 is too expensive, which would indicate that we have an inelastic calling range. And that he would be bluffing.
4. He thinks that $6100 gets called more often than $8400, which would indicate that he would be valuebetting.
I think the most important part here is that if he was bluffing all his air hands, he should be more weighted towards potting his entire range. And also I would expect that he thinks that we think that the 6 doesn't hit him all that frequent, while in fact he has the nuts over 60% here.
In general, players don't bluff perceived blanks often enough. I would not assume that he bets over 85% of his air without reads.
I am not quite sure how to nest comments correctly on this forum - hope this shows up in reply to GT's response to my comment.
I disagree with this statement. Can you give any reason why hero's perception of villain's range should be skewed away from the ranges you gave earlier? Based on a sample of the 4 commenters in this thread 3 are leaning towards fold indicating they think villain's range is indeed heavy with T8 combos (including cYde who seems to perceive some 96 low-wrap combos in villains range when he says "the river completes two straights"). If anything I think villain likely expects a tag hero who normally stays out of his way to be overly afraid of this river card and give him too much credit for having T8 (or even 96) combos than he actually will.
I just don't think it is true that this card is a perceived blank.If the player is a heavily GT based player this makes sense. But this is a live 5/10/25 game and I would expect a big winner to play more exploitatively than GTO. Accordingly I expect him to bet his bluffs whatever amount he thinks gives him the strongest perceived range here. Since we all agree this amount looks like value, it is also the amount I expect him to bluff.
I wouldn't expect an exploitative player to split his range into betting 6100 with nuts and pot with air, since a tag will instantly and correctly perceive a PSB to indicate a polarized range, often question why villain wouldn't try to elicit a crying call with a smaller bet against his obvious top set, and actually talk himself into a call more often vs a PSB than vs 6100. If anything when our good exploitative live player does split his nuts/air range on the river into two bet sizes I expect pot to be the nuts-heavy and a smaller sizing to be air-heavy.
Obviously much of our disagreement hinges on perception of player types. Perhaps BagOfSuck could chime in to confirm or deny some of the villain tendencies we are making assumptions about?
When you check/3bet the flop it's extremely likely he knows you have a made hand here. It appears he's trying to get as much money in OOP with a good wrap this deep. The question is whether it's around the QJT or JT8. His turn c/c further supports that his range is likely almost entirely draws. I don't think he's playing 99 or 77 conservatively out of respect for you, although I suppose it's more likely than normal given it's a limped pot.
He has to know you have a set on the river. You've played your hand like a set the entire time. If he views you as competent/TAG but not nitty, his river lead is far more often for value than a bluff, in my estimation. Again, because it's a limped pot , he turns up with JT8x more than a nice QJTx hand that would've been raised preflop (even in the SB when this ridiculously deep).
A great bet by him really, regardless of his holding. He could be bluffing some % of the time simply because your hand is so defined, but I think he's just betting the nuts here a litttttttle more often. Either way, a very tough spot.
The good thing here is that he called a potbet OOP on the turn so you can narrow his range down a ton.
Yes these last two comments are the most relevant. It's pretty hard to do a great analysis of a players range we have no real stats on or feel for your dynamic with. I play a lot of deep live PLO and the biggest mistakes I see people make are turning their hand face up with a very large stack to pot ratio on a board with a lot of scare cards. Your flop play should be to lead or just cold call.
From the NL prospective of things u have the nuts and want to get in money against any hands that are nutted and will get it in. But from the PLO perspective of things against a good player, they certainly aren't getting in 14k into a limped pot with 2nd set and the likelihood is they have a draw with equity close to 50% so you are building a large pot with your hand essentially face up. When you come in cold on the flop like this for 1250 with $25 in the pot you have KK an extremely high % of the time. However when you cold call your hand looks likes draw and when the board pairs or safe cards come off you will still get barreled a ton, put him in a much tougher spot with lower sets on later streets and prevent him from repping hands he doesn't have since the draws are in your range now.
Just to clarify its not bad to pot the flop like you did bc you are getting tons of money in good and you should have some sort of range for doing it, but it definitely think it is a really good play to have to just be flatting to keep your range balanced and to add a lot of toughness and deception to your game. Most people just don't have draws they like to pot it here with bc KK is so likely and they don't want to get in 4k on the flop
i fold in this spot for reasons already mentioned but for all those who would fold , what would you do with KKT6?
Was this a typo? Why would kkt6 be any different? It supplies no relevant blockers. We are already very confident he has some wrap all of which contain a T so us having a T is irrelevant. The 6 likewise doesn't help any. KKT6 should be treated the same as KK74
KK74 blocks 0 wrap combos KK6T blocks alot of them and makes our hand a serious bluffcatcher i don't know how much difference it makes but it definitely makes some
My point above is that we are already very certain he has a wrap.
All wraps contain a T. So having a T is non informative.
If we had an 8 it would be valuable given the wraps he has are now significantly more skewed to JTQ vs JT8.
yes you are right but lets just say that KK6T is a better bluffcatcher than KK73 :)
but if we are so confident that he has a wrap it means that if we had the dream hand KK88 it would be the same as if we have KK73 ?
Yes kk6t is slightly better but only for those rare cases he didn't have a wrap.
But kk88 is certainly a much better bluff catcher than kk73 if he has a wrap because jt8 wraps got there while QJT wraps missed.
Hello, guys. I really enjoyed reading this thread as many others. And as typing my first message I would like to thank Phil Galfond for this site and all pros who still are happy to share their sights to the game.
And I hope you don't mind to hear and maybe to answer a question from a guy who barely knows the game and english language (sorry for mistakes).
The thought which crossed my mind is next. If our hand, as a top set plus smth, is faced up for the villain then on the turn he has 27 "outs". 24 for wrap representing and extra 3 for only flush rep. Maybe flush rep is too optimistic but anyways 24 is more than a half of the deck, and find the right ratio of bluff isnt a big deal for this spot so we can assume he would play the river perfectly. So finally to my question - is a pot-size bet on the turn a right decision?
Is it possible that if you are playing deep and have position, you can raise or bet flops. Bet or flat turns. And when one of the worst cards come on the river and its checked to you, just shove? I know this is standard PLO101 but reading all of these analysis has really got me thinking of what spots I hate the most as a player. Its when someone calls me down and the flush card or straight card comes on the river and I am polarized from my preflop--turn play. I hate being put in these spots and it has me considering to change the way I play now and use this vs other players.
isnt this a fairly easy fold when hero is face up with KK? I mean I'd expect after the turn call for villan to have some big wraps and would be suicidal to bluff here
He could have a hand like second set, with a double paired hand (rainbow or single suited, as i expect him to raise more than not a double suited one).
Maybe a hand like 99TT, 99JJ, etc.
The 9 isn't a diamond, that increase this possibility as he might choose to fold an unimproved second set on the turn.
Still a marginal part of his range, but you should count it if you want to do rigorous math.
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