Lol, this hand is so twisted I just had to post
Posted by Sauce123
Posted by
Sauce123
posted in
High Stakes
Lol, this hand is so twisted I just had to post
PokerStars Hand #90924486317: Omaha Pot Limit ($50/$100 USD) - 2012/12/17 20:30:36 ET
Table 'Vibilia IV' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: Sauce123 ($28261 in chips)
Seat 6: Odd_Oddsen ($60371 in chips)
Sauce123: posts small blind $50
Odd_Oddsen: posts big blind $100
Sauce123: posts the ante $20
Odd_Oddsen: posts the ante $20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sauce123 [Qs Kh 8h Qh]
Sauce123: raises $240 to $340
Odd_Oddsen: raises $720 to $1060
Sauce123: calls $720
*** FLOP *** [9c 7h Tc]
Odd_Oddsen: bets $1700
Sauce123: calls $1700
*** TURN *** [9c 7h Tc] [Qd]
Odd_Oddsen: bets $4100
Sauce123: calls $4100
*** RIVER *** [9c 7h Tc Qd] [Qc]
Odd_Oddsen: checks
Sauce123: bets $12800
Odd_Oddsen: raises $39358 to $52158
Sauce123 said, "sigh"
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This really sucks. Not much to say. I don't think I could lay it down in practice, but we probably should?
a) your range doesnt have many boats given sets are most often raising flop and Qs-full would require runner-runner combos. Thus making it a spot he might opt to c/r bluff.
b) needless to say if you b/f this you have no b/c range.
c) you beat some of his value range, he could check flopped sets and hope you value bet flushes and bluff. He then can realize that with TT for ex. that he is right at the top of his range and that if he ever plans to bluff river using this line, he should probably be raising river with underfulls which can get called by trips and flushes.
As far as the substantive points of your post. (a) is way wrong- I have a fair amount of sets and so should you in your flop call range, I also have a lot of runner Qs full in this spot look at the action please, (b) is wrong, i can easily have QT which im never folding, (c) is way way wrong for the same reasons (a) was.
c) not true, only beat a bluff
I think that he valueraises worse almost never because it's too easy for both hero and villain (or villain thinks so since he doesn't know you block both queens) and he reps the straight flush fairly well. Thus it comes down to if he has a bluffraising range here and even though I would assume most would say he has based on him being really good (I've played a little with him when he played much, much lower but not enough to tell really, I'll assume so for this post though.)
I'm not sold on anyone bluffing enough in all spots though so I'd just take your guesstimation of his bluff raising frequencies here and put it against his range of 1 hand and make a decision on that. I assume that on of the following 3 alternatives are true:
1. He's, in your opinion, very rarely bluffs in this kind of situation.
2. You're kind of running bad and letting it effect you.
3. For some reason or other you got either a timing tell or a msg from GOD that said he was strong.
I don't really think 2 is true but I assume it happens even to great players so I included it.
I played something like this on 2/4 on a Euro site a few days ago where Board was KdKxTd Ax Ad or and I 3barreled and got shipped on on the river by some nit when I had AA and I actually thought for a good 10 sec before I decided that he could be dumb with KK** (he was!) but in this case it's much harder since there's no real obvious valuecutting hand.
All in all I'd end up calling if I thought he had any kind of half way reasonable frequency of raising blockers here (I dunno, like JcXcT9 or something). What kind of makes it more of a call, at least against a mid stakes mind, would be that your range is fairly wide and includes both a lot of bluffs and some thin value, which, in that regard, makes it a fairly decent spot to blow you off stuff.
- I never said he could have Qs full, I said under fulls. With an aggro dynamic it's not inconceivable he will opt to cr TT here if you vbet flushes and combo wise with TT if you call with 99 77 and some flushes, then as long as there are more combos of those than better its a +ev raise. Obv if you never b/c flushes a cr with TT would be bad. I just argue he could expect you to b/c with flushes some, whether you really do or not is not relevant.
- the most common hand you'll have in this spot on river is a flush, if villain expects you to vbet your better flushes than its a pretty good spot to bluff raise with some pair blockers which will skew your range more to flushes reducing boat combos.
- sure you can flat some sets on flop but you'll also be raising sets often so all I was saying is those combos are discounted.
-likewise his jc8c combos are narrowed given he will be raising flop with them some significant %
-you could argue you would be raising several FDs on flop as well which makes your river range contain less flushes which would support your stance and I'd agree but I ink there are more FDs that flat than J8cc and sets.
-you argue that you you can b/c QT but b/f QQ which is interesting because in general we should be hero calling on a sliding scale starting at the top of our range. I am anticipating that you mention QT because it allows him to have worse value combos of Qs full, am I correct? If so I can see merits there.
-I apologize for belittling your post by labeling it BBV , I was however surprised that you and Phil who are both very concerned with playing non exploitive would consider folding the very top of your hero calling range. I do agree that you most often only beat a bluff, but not many combos of bluffs are required to make it a call. Especially without any specific reads on villains bluffing tendencies on river, I would not choose to make such a exploitive fold.
-if you still disagree with all or some of this, I'm all ears and open to being convinced otherwise.
your sense of people's ranges is pretty off. he is never c/raising underfulls. we really aren't raising sets on the flop as often as you think. people call flop with sets quite a bit more than raise. and betting a flush on the river is actually pretty close
We slide the hand strength scale relative to villains hand not our absolute hand strength.
I don't think there is a single thing you could say without including a street by street breakdown of both players' hand ranges with reference to either optimal or exploitative play with those ranges which could possibly change my mind in any way about this hand.
Certainly you will know your ranges better than I so if you never vbet flushes then your river value range will be only boats and bluffs. Likewise if other of my assumptions were off then my conclusions will be off, only you are privy to that info. But to be clear I never sad you're vbet range had more flushes than boats, I said you arrive at river with more flushes.
I am aware of your reputation as an elite player, and I respect that. however in a discussion especially one that you are OP looking for input, getting a benefit of doubt for articulating viewpoints is not only inappropriate but also counter productive to the discussion. If you can't be expected to take the time to give quality analysis, why do you expect me to or others?
I suggest we move on from this hand. I intend to contribute and to learn in these threads as I assume you do as well. I have no need or intension to create friction with you given I anticipate having future discussions on other topics and value any high level posters opinions.
To do a proper analysis of this river spot as you know starts with PF. Since I haven't played either you HU in an ante game, could you just provide a rough % breakdown of Oddsens 3bet range in this spot and your defence range.
Certainly you will know your ranges better than I so if you never vbet flushes then your river value range will be only boats and bluffs. Likewise if other of my assumptions were off then my conclusions will be off, only you are privy to that info. But to be clear I never sad you're vbet range had more flushes than boats, I said you arrive at river with more flushes.
I am aware of your reputation as an elite player, and I respect that. however in a discussion especially one that you are OP looking for input, getting a benefit of doubt for articulating viewpoints is not only inappropriate but also counter productive to the discussion. If you can't be expected to take the time to give quality analysis, why do you expect me to or others?
I suggest we move on from this hand. I intend to contribute and to learn in these threads as I assume you do as well. I have no need or intension to create friction with you given I anticipate having future discussions on other topics and value any high level posters opinions.
Edit: sorry for double post.
I just want to jump in and say that QT is MUCH more of a clear call than QQ here. Many of you have pointed out that he can value raise with chops or Q9, but more importantly, Qxxx is far and away the most likely bluffing hand in villain's spot.
- He does not shove worse for value.
- He is not sick enough to bluff in that spot, especially knowing u get like 5-1 to a call.
- He does not expect u to fold almost anything you bet for value.
- His timing indicated he had it (from my experience with him).
This might have been addressed already (I haven't read through the posts yet) but something that bothers me about this hand is that I feel like his best line on the river with a SF is to bet as he likely (evidently) gets 2bets in more often that way, plus of course all of your bluff-catching calls that would have chkd back river. Any insight into why he might not think this Ben?
One reason he may not vs. Ben is that Ben bets river when checked to much more frequently than most (obviously with more bluffs and a wider value range).
Still though, I feel so strongly that a bet is better than a c/r with the SF that I'm now snap-calling. Even though I'm still thinking we usually lose, it takes enough away from his value range (a significant amount, IMO) that we have more than good enough pot odds.
A good chunk of hands that you successfully c/r and get called will be value raising anyways. The fact that you (presumably) don't have many or any boat blockers with Your straight-flush means you get raised by boat blocker hands more often than normal. Qxxx would very likely check back but has a decent chance of raising your lead, or perhaps calling. Hands that block boats are significantly more likely to bluff for the 2nd bet than the first, because the first bet doesn't necessarily rep boats and because they often have the SD value to check.
QT is a much better c/r hand because your opponent had more flushes to VB, fewer Q9 hands to raise with, and fewer hands (Qxxx) with strong showdown value that will check back.
true story, right after i graduated and moved back down to LA i was playing in a 1/2NL game. i had TT (jackpot qualifier was aces full of tens or better beaten by quads or better and both cards had to play) board was AA2 in a 3bet pot and on flop i looked at villain and his eyes were all big. flop went check check and as dealer was about to burn and turn i stopped him and said "put another ace up there please" he ripped off another ace and i looked at villain again and he was staring at me with his eyes about to pop out of his head. i just kindv tilted my head in a questioning manner and he started bobbing his head frantically. now we just needed a low card to come on river so not to counterfeit his kicker so again i stop the dealer and say "make it low please" he rips off a 4 and the guy doesn't even wait for any action he just slams over his AJ and starts fist-pumping. the best part was he could've just open shoved the river and obv i would be forced to call and he would've won a lil extra but he clearly was so excited he didn't consider that (prolly kindv scummy to do in his spot tho i dunno). i also won the lion share of the jackpot as i had the losing hand (think my cut was ~23K which at the time was huge).
i hadn't even wanted to come play that night but my buddy called me and convinced me to come play, and i didn't want to play in the 1/2NL but i was on the WL for the 5/10NL and bored so decided to mess around in the small game.
that being said, all I can say is: "Hi, Jack!"
1. If villain checks river with the ace high flush or king high flush do we expect him to call? Those hand seems to strong to turn into a bluff (particularly the ace high flush)
2. Does villain value jam TT** otr? My guess would be no thinking he would be more likely to bet fold(or bet call) , making it very difficult to have a worse hand otr for value
3. How often does villain arrive at the river with the Jc blocker and opt to shove, its obviously a bit of a kamikaze bluff but we are sitting here with 4 queens considering fold.
Ben Sulsky disagreed in Zachary Freemans imo really solid line of thoughts. And shows very poor manners. Its so exploitable for Ben to fold top of his range river. Odd clearly nows that Ben is good/bad enough to fold his premiums with 5-1 in odds. So he own his soul, and bluff the river. MBN :)
I would prob put your bet considerfolding range to q k a flush 77 99 and folding range to all bluffs ( whitch could incl baby flushes baby straights ) Lets say he puts you on callingforsure with all your boats and folding the rest of your range - he comes out ok ? ( he´s got no reason to put you on too many q´s ) - he might even think he can get you to lay down q 7 ... and his range is really wide on turn ? ..... I would call happy on these grounds alone .....
If we take into consideration , that he is trying to come up with a counter to your strong riverplay as phil describes it , this could be a line he came up with
.... if you call youll know - its a good time to by some info with qqqq :)
- im not an expert player - and would like a comment on my thougts ...
Sauce : call QT!Q!Q, KcJc**, Jc8c**, QQJc*, fold the rest (QT!Q!Q means QT but not QQT)
Odd : reraise all in QQ**, QT**, KcJc, Jc8c
What are the necessary / sufficient conditions on incoming frequencies for this to be an equilibrium for this river's sub-game ?
Odd is risking 21401 to win 26520, he needs to succeed 45% of times to break even, which transfers in to a 55% calling frequency for Ben.
So if QT!Q!Q, KcJc**, Jc8c**, QQJc* is more than 55 % of Sauce's range, the equilibrium is stable.
But if Odd has the Jc blocker, and no straight flush, it becomes harder for Sauce to reach the threshold calling frequency : if QT!Q!Q is less than 55% of his range, then bluffing Jc blockers is good.
Then from Sauce's point of view we would need those bluffs to be less than 15% of Odd's reraising range for the fold to still be correct, as he's calling 8601 to win 56522.
ur never folding
/thread
Dont see how I could sleep folding this for less than a minraise
I don't know much about villain or you but it seems like you have a lot of Q's->boats in your range, which makes me think he is not likely to try and bluff you in this spot.
How wide are you generally betting this river for value, or how wide does villain think you are?
No range analysis which makes me post a little dormant but I couldn't really add anything that hasn't' already been said, i agree he only ships a SF and it's perfectly reasonable for him to have it.
As in interesting question if he leads the river you shipping QT and just calling QQ ??
FFS though as if the river just comes the Queen of clubs, tilt.
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