valuebet/bluffhands ratio
Posted by skillo23
Posted by
skillo23
posted in
Mid Stakes
valuebet/bluffhands ratio
i know that if yu bet 75% of the pot yu must have 70% of value hands but that if we consider one street , if we consider two or three streets (normal from the flop) we can add more bluff hands , i m wondering how many exactly? and the math beyond this ??? thanks in advantage
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" we can add more bluff hands" it is reverse actually. You should bluff the most OTF as a "pure air" bluff as villain will fold out all his misses. Lets say you c-bet K83r with your 76s and the bb folds. Now if you are called, villain has at least a pair, maybe just something marginal like an 8 but may KQ or better, so bluffing more often on the turn wouldnt benefit us.
Also, you cannot just go ahead, say I bet a random number of combos for value, and add 1/4 random combos of bluff, you will bluff too often and valuebet too thinly.
thanks for the answer , but i think it's not the answer i' m looking for, i mean that i would like to know how many combinations of bluffhands for GTO i have to have if i bet a certain amount of the pot and there are three streets left.... if there is a video link thanks again
You have to know a board first and adjust flop texture by preflop handrange (openraise or flat). Or maybe this helps.
http://www.pokersnowie.com/blog/2014/04/11/postflop-strategy-developing-correct-bluff-value-ratio
OP, the snowie article is good. But the math behind the scenes is not that hard ... so let's give it a try! :)
The reason why you can increase the ratio on previous streets is the following: the range you bet on the river (say 2:1 value:bluff) leaves Villain indifferent between calling and folding. This means, the EV is zero in any case, he could just fold the hand. That essentially means the following: ONCE you bet the river, Villain lost the previous invest, right?
So, anything he invested on flop / turn now gets folded ... what does that mean in reverse? It means that our entire river range, no matter if value or bluffs - is our valuepart on the turn. That is because that exact range part is the one that Villain loses his turnbet against (because we bet it 100% on the river and Villain loses the hand). Villain can only win - after calling our turnbet - once we give up on the river. And that "give-up-range" is the bluff-part on the turn. Clear?
Example: We are on the river with a (perfectly polarized) range of 20 valuecombos, and a gazillion airballs. We bet pot. Now, we know that we have to bet a ratio of 2:1, so we add 10 bluffs to our betting-range. Villain folds (or calls, does not matter) - and loses his previous invest.
Now, one street back. We are on the turn - again we bet pot. Villain is getting 2:1 on his call. If we were to bet the exact same range as we bet the river - he would instantly lose his turncall, so we have to bluff more. Now we take our river-betting-range (value+bluffs) and consider it our turn-value-range, as mentioned above. Now we have a "valuerange" of 30 combos on the turn - and again we can add 50% of those as bluffs, so we bet 30 + 15 combos. If Villain now calls, he loses the hand everytime we bet the river (30/45) and wins, once we give up (15/45) - which means, his turncall is break-even. Which is what we wanted.
Everything got clear?
So, how would our flop-range look like?
But what about our strong draws like flushdraws with one overcard, if we happen to have it in our turn bluffing range, it wil be aprrox. 20% in our value river range. How do we analyze that?
Thanks for explaining these stuff. I am a bit math noob and I d like to solve this problem.
So I understand the ratio given the odds we offer Villian.
But why do we have to bluff more OTT ? Is it to let Villian not be indifferent calling or folding just to see the River and then be indifferent ?
Doesnt make sense for me this point. I probably didnt understand it yet and thats why I am asking :)
The reason is that if we would not bluff more on the turn - we'd let Villain exploit us by folding!
See my calculation again. Say, we bet the exact same 20 + 10 combos on the turn that we are going to bet on the river again.
This means, Villain had to call 1p on the turn - and another 3p on the river (1p in the pot + 1p bet + 1* p call), for a total of 4p - to win 5p (1p in the pot on the turn + 1p turnbet + 3*p riverbet). How much equity does he need for the turncall? Call 4 to win 5? => He needs 4 / (5+4) = 4/9 = 44% equity. But he only has 33% equity, which means, he has a trivially easy fold.
What do we do to avoid him folding any2 - and a) increase the frequency he pays off our valuebets and b) increase our bluff-ratio w/o Villain being able to do anything against it? => We bluff more! Just as much that Villain is break-even on his call again - and can't simply fold any2 (gently smiling and being grateful for not being forced to pay our valueheavy range).
This explanation was just to make it clear verbally, but the math is even easier. As mentioned, if we bet the river with a perfect balance, Villain's EV is zero. Agree?
=> EV (rivercall) = EV (riverfold) = 0
OK, now assume, we are always betting the river - because we bet the turn with the exact same range that we continue barreling the river. How does Villain's EV on the turn looks like then?
EV (turncall) = (100% * 0) - p = -p
That means, Villain loses his entire turnbet, once he calls - because he never wins. Which in reverse means, his best decision is to fold 100%. And as that is not in our interest, we bluff more on the turn.
Everything clear now? :)
So basically , villain can only call our c-bet if he will be able to call down 3 streets at high frequnecies?
Nope, we are talking about completely polarized ranges (so far), so him "being able" to calldown is not the point - his range is always 100% vs. our bluffs, 0% against our valuebets, so the point is that Villain can call if we give up often enough on later streets.
dat is tru only OTR
Thanks alot BigFiszh for your time. I did understand. Makes alot sense. :)
really thank yu to BIgfiszh it si simple at the end:) , tha last question if we change size on the river, we suppose that we bet on the river pot so we can add 10bluff combos and instead on the turn we bet halfpot so we have on the river (20value+10bluff combos) on the turn they became 30 valuecombos plus another 10combos bluff (on the turn we have to have 3value for 1 bluff if we bet half pot) is that correct???? thank yu again
If we bet 1/2 Pot our optimal bluffingfreq is 25% so yep
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