QQ?

i dont play this cash game stuff anymore but Kh turn wouldnt be a good card to x/r since you decided to check otf AhA ? 

How much is villain stabbing when you check, and how much will he do it on a texture like this ?
Have you been x/folding on textures like these ?

I think villain can have 89s like this as bluff and stuff like 9Tcc that just continues on the K cause its a good bluff card ? Does villain stab flop w TJcc and is the question. A5s is also one thats very possible for a bluff. And maybe A2cc,A3cc ?
He prob def has 44,66,77,67s for value and 89hh,9Thh,TJhh,QJhh,QThh,T8hh (78hh ?)

How much Axhh combos you play like this and do you play KK,QQ like this as well ?
I think that will determine if it should be a call gto wise or not.

I can see the river being value bet 2p+.  So something like:

67s (2), KhQx (3) 

66, 77 (6)

flushes (9)

For bluffs, I think at least AhJx, Ah:Tx for 6 combos make sense, possibly more depending on how wide he's defending preflop.  And then some of the low missed gs's/oesd's.  Say 89s, 9Ts, 8Ts (9).

So your Ah probably does more harm as a bluff catcher than good.  And probably is a fold, unless he is spaz betting all his missed draws on the river, like A8s, A5s, A3s.

If ur playing this passively vs a guy with so wide ranges, no wonder he kills u. I understand check/calling flop+turn if you snap this river. IMO, you're better off barreling this guy ; if you play passively without a real plan, you'll end up calling earlier streets and fold on scare cards, which he'll be very comfortable betting A LOT. Adding to that you totaly let him take free cards, controlling the size of the pot.

By choosing to play so passively you let him own you. He's super loose and super-agressive, the fact that the board favors slightly more his range than yours is insignificant when you take into account the width of his range. I like checking to induce, and either check-call down many runouts, or check-raise at some point. When you think about it, depending on your BB 3betting range / defending range, you'll have a bunch of pairs / Ahi you want to X/C flop and possibly turn as bluffcatchers, and possibly fold river. My point is that unless your opponent knows for sure you're checking such strong hands, then I don't see how you cannot snap river.

If your plan is to play tight / solid vs him, then instead of letting him controlling the hand, find ways to build strong and balanced barreling ranges, and barrel him to hell. Make him suffer just because he's too loose.

I haven't read all the  other posts so forgive me if this is being repeated. 

But, if you check this flop its so you can just call the river. I think in theory its an instant call... given people dont really bluff enough I'd probably just sigh call but I'd still call relatively quickly. 

If he's got you, he's got you.Sometimes its just your turn to lose.

You might be right, but if you're right, you're surely making a mistake by checking AA in the first place.

I don't really know what you're talking about at this point... 

AhA is like the strongest hand in your whole range on the flop practically....

And its damn near one of the strongest on this runout.

I don't see why you're so afraid of calling here. You're not trying to come up with a strategy that stops him from jamming the nuts or effective nuts against you.

You're trying to stop him from going bonkers with his bluffs.

Why cant he have AxJh, JhTx, JxTh, KxJh that hes now shoving for value (questionable but possible), 55 or 33 or 88 that have decided to continue bluffing on this runout etc...

Obviously assuming he's got all of these in his bluffing range is insane. But if he has some of each (and maybe some even more random ones like JTdd or something) every so often then you're getting steamrolled here.

Also, if you fold this youre just folding all the time

This isn't the strongest hand you'll have here.  You should have plenty of nut flushes and you should have all flopped sets to play this way.  I think all these hands are better river calls than AhAx since with this hand, we block so many of his 3 barrel bluffing hands.  You've made a bunch of good points about how he doesn't get to this point with many bluffs.  One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the fact that when you're 120bb deep, villain is going to flat a lot more random suited hands, stuff like J8hh T7hh Q8hh Q9hh ... it widens his value range here.  I think a fold may be prudent.

This seems like a solid hand to do it with, because I don't fear overcards, and a heart is fine.

...

Pretty tough spot here.

Does not quite compute?

It seems as though, with the way the board ran out, there's quite little incentive to take a showdown with quite a few hands that might bet the flop to protect. 

I tend to agree with Peter that "a fold may be prudent," if you were playing against a more typical player.

Against someone who you have described as extremely LAG, I'm not so sure.

I think MrSneeze and Apotheosis sum up the hand very well.  To quote Apotheosis: "if you check this flop it's so you can just call the river."  Against this player, I think that is spot on.

As far as whether to check this flop or not you are approaching the question correctly; the board is better for his range than yours.  But not by much.  In NLH the big pair hands tend to have such an equity advantage that even on flops that don't improve your range you aren't going to be in terrible shape.  Particularly on boards lower than 9 hi (like this one) your over pairs are going to make your range fairly dominant.

This opponent in particular is playing extremely loose.  One of the ways we exploit our opponents when they are playing very loose is to pile money in against them with stronger ranges.  Therefore I think playing a "check a lot" strategy on what is really a pretty innocuous board is a pretty big mistake.

Good luck to you Chael, I mostly lurk here but it's been cool to see you post HHs from bigger and bigger games as this site has gotten older.

Cheers.

I'm really not sure what to do here. GTO wise it's probably a call? It's pretty hard for him to be bluffing, despite his style.

without reading thread i would +1 this and fold too much on this river.  

my first instinct is that he'd be underbluffing here if he's aware that you perceive him as aggro, which he almost definitely does b/c he's a smart nosebleed player.  he's probably used to players trying to exploit him by overfolding turn and overcalling river on these types of boards, and he'll probably underbluff river in these spots to counter that tendency.  He may even suspect that your turn x/c'ing range is already exploitatively geared to counter his over-aggression, esp on this turn which is very easy for you to justfify overfolding.  this would make him even less interested in bluffing river.  lastly as was pointed out, it's hard to find bluffs in his range, especially when you block missed NFD's

it would be one of those in-step over-folds that you can get away with when you have the right game flow, but not make a habit of with him

Guys, there's absolutely no need to over think this spot *especially* at high stakes. With stats like those, and not complete relative passivity postflop, he's by definition going to be unbalanced postflop in the sense that not all his barrels are going to be just pure 'OESD' or other obvious draws.

So we need to make his air-balls not steamroller us. All this other conjecture and seeing the spot in a vacuum is very mentally intensive and basically a waste of time.

it would be one of those in-step over-folds that you can get away with
when you have the right game flow, but not make a habit of with him

C'mon with daaaaaat....

Good thread guys.  A few things I think are important to note:

-3betting the BB is expensive with a lot of hands that hit this board hard, 22-88 and the medium/small SCs.
Inflating the pot with hands whose pair outs are mostly bluffcatchers gets kind of expensive, not to mention that these hands have no blockers to premiums so they get 4b often.

-Villain is loose and aggro and good, so he'll be favoring a wide btn open range and a wide calling range preflop.

-So, on the flop your range will have perhaps have more equity, but likely much fewer nut combos (however, the pot is so big on the flop that TT is the effective nuts, but that can change on many runouts). 

-Idc if you blocking bet, bomb, or X flop as OOP.  AA is an especially good hand to check with b/c most of villain's Ax combos check back flop so when we check AA his aggression freq is high.

-He shouldn't be calling bways without a bdfd on the flop, meaning that on the Kh turn he's probably only holding KcQc/KcJc etc.  He won't have a ton of suited Kx prob- so the Kh is a very good card for you (esp since some FD raise flop on this texture). 

-Turn XC is w/e, it's a bit odd to not slowplay AA on flop and then go into XC mode on a great card for us where we block a lot of his semibluffs, i.e., Ahx but w/e it's fine, we'll maximize value from SDs and QJcc stuff A5 etc.

-Call river.  He's going to have at least 12 combos of missed straight draws (A5, 98, T9, T8, A8, A3), as well as the occasional hand that rivered no showdown value like 65s/54s or AdJh.  He'll have a lot of flushes too, but really regardless of his strat he'll just have so many hands K hi or worse that this is a snap.

-I still think it's a close spot though against some people who are nitty, but not against this guy especially once we get a lot of the weaker hands in there preflop that flop a lot of gutters, and when we widen his continue range on the flop because of your low flop cb sizing.

Turn XC is w/e, it's a bit odd to not slowplay AA on flop and then go
into XC mode on a great card for us where we block a lot of his
semibluffs, i.e., Ahx but w/e it's fine, we'll maximize value from SDs
and QJcc stuff A5 etc.

Are you sure you didn't misread the action?

This and a few other things are written like Hero bet the flop. 

This can't be a x/f, it just can't. Not vs the player you describe. The only way it could be a fold is if it's an explofold vs some nits that haven't made a 3barrelbluff their whole life.

In the wise words of scott seiver, "If you fold that, I'll think less of you" and "There's just no way that's AA".

@OP out of interest what is your plan on river if you make a flush? (without board pairing)

I see conflicting things about this written in peoples comments. Is having the Ah lean us towards call or fold? It blocks semi bluffs that would rip three streets but it also diminishes the amount of flushes in his range.