$50/$100 HUNL vs. Kanu7 Session Review (part 1)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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I have to say I think Kanu's river bet (1600 into ~5K) is genius. From his point of view, your range by the river should boil down to a 9x, Kx or spades. He really can't see your A6cc coming Phil, that's just gravy for him :) ... Since Kano doesn't know your 3bet tendencies yet (whether you are polarized or not) he may well assume that all the kings you may actually have in your range are weak, and he's probably putting you on KT at the tops. Since he's blocking a King, the betsizing extracts more value from your range as he might perceive you to have more 9s there, and some KT's or worse.
The beauty of this play is that his betsizing is so small that it almost turns his hand face up to a KT-KJ hand (like you said). This fact usually leads us to raise to get more value from our flushes, and I think not just Jhigh or better. By the time we raise, we are pretty much committed (we can even ship for slightly over a PSB). By this fact, he extracts more value from our flushes (even if we puke after our unplanned C/R and fold to save 2-3K) then if he bet 3.5-4K on the river. He gets a lot more frequency of calls from our 9X, loses about 2K when we have a K, but ensures that we never fold our K6 there - Let's not forget, its a pretty bad card to bluff as you said yourself, in post-game analysis. There's also the off chance that you spazz out, trying to rep the flush, thinking you can make him fold K8.
This is beautiful bet with so many positives to it that was perfect for the situation that it was - the start of a HU match with limited knowledge of each others game.
Regarding the flop call, I can't see that beeing profitable vs a very good HU player like Kanu,because he will make it very hard for you to continue on later streets and getting to showdown.
As played, I'd probably prefer a 3bet/fold to a call in this spot,you have some decent foldequity vs his air and gutshots and you can set up a nice donk betting dynamic.
That said, I've played so little NLHE compared to PLO in the last 5 years that I haven't built ranges that I'm comfortable with (meaning I'd like to support my overbet ranges with some mathematical analysis).
In general, the best spots to overbet river are when your opponents range is face up as a bluff catcher, or otherwise (virtually) capped. The spot you mentioned seems to be a good opportunity for that.
On the T8 hand where you led twice on 642cc Tc board, what would you do if he raises on turn? I find myself often in similar situations, where he (=SB) checks back flop, I lead with my turned (or flopped) top pair or something and get raised. I don't wanna fold, nor do I think 3bet is a great option, but if I call I mostly have to bluff catch with my TP on most rivers. It's awkward spot either way, and I was wondering what you would think about it.
Phil:
I personally don't like this lead in the long run, but I guess since its your first lead in the HU match, it doesn't matter. A 246cc flop, is a board that hits the btn's range alot harder than our BB calling range - we just can't afford to play small junk like that OOP too often. I'm not sure if you plan on 3betting small SCs like 35s/46s or just calling them. If you don't have small SCs in your range there, and your opponent figures that out, that lead is gonna turn ugly over time. You're repping sets and flush draws with help, perhaps big 6s or 4s. Alot of opponents will auto-raise your lead on this board seeing that range as unthreatening. PP-Sets are as rare as they come in HU, and over cards can either counterfeit your hand, or give them good bluffing power since the board is so small, all they have to fear is the 3bet from possible combo draws.
Usually, I think you get bluff-raised a lot on this board when you lead for the reasons I mentioned unless you can establish to your opponent that you're not messing around with donk leads on these boards. Conversely, when Kanu has something with decent showdown value (A3/J2/74/A5), he leans towards calling. Once he calls the flop, he gives you the keys to the "barrelling car" and you get to be the one applying the pressure in later streets as the board runout almost always hurts those marginal hands.
I'd like to know what you think of all this, as you mentioned that you like you're lead in this spot (during the video).
If we call turn and fold river even when we improve, isn't it highly exploitable? I think it also makes our turn b/c range quite marginal and b/3b range rather polarised, and villain can play a lot of turn/river very well against us.
Kanu is repping a flush if he raises the turn, pretty much nothing else, maybe T2/T4/T6 or the only TT combo. The only way we can beat that range in anyway is by hitting an 8, and that only beats a few hands. In reality, it would be better for Kanu to flat all those 2prs as well and call down most rivers. On top of that, I feel that if the T paired on the river, Kanu wouldn't bluff that card at a high frequency as it strengthens our perceived range (K6 looks nicer now). I think we are either calling down or not, meaning, he's either bluffing the flush, or has it. So in my opinion, improving on the river is irrelevant.
Its also not exploitable because we can have flushes and sets ourselves there and can be letting him hang himself. In this spot, we are near the bottom of our range once we call the turn raise.
First of all, thanks for chiming in here. I keep trying to encourage people to discuss hands and concepts in threads like these, rather than just pose questions and wait for my answer. I think it's a great learning opportunity that is usually missed out on.
Your point about my range not being great on this board is a good one. It's something I realized, but definitely overlooked in talking about the hand. I do 3bet a lot of my small suited junk, but I still have my sets, pair+draws, and big dras, as you said.
I guess I should clarify what I liked about this play. I don't like leading this flop weak often. What I do like was the hand I chose to do it with, because I took a hand that had essentially no EV in it and turned it into (what I think was) a profitable situation. The cards I hit were somewhat disguised, and there were many cards that I could bluff on credibly.
As you pointed out, this is more of a 1st time, early match dynamic thing. If he knows I'm doing this, the value of the play is greatly diminished... especially the value of my bluff outs.
Love the video, Phil, please make some more.
I wonder if he improvised this sizing in-game, or this was a spot he had already thought about. Either way, dude is good.
I would like to hear thoughts about that.
I think when you get to the river like this most your range is strong, very strong actually.
There shouldn't actually be much stuff you need to bluff with in your range, if any at all (I think he expects your lead- call, check call range to be strong). I would think that the reason he has bet this size is because he is giving you credit for recognising how strong your range is by this river... and actually expects you to make some fairly big hero folds with Kx if he goes for a large bet. I do not think he expects you to be comfortable check calling a v weak king to a large bet when you know that your range appears to be K x Plus on this river...
If he gives you a range of kings/flushes/nines/some small % of air, he has must have bet small in order to;
a) ensure that you shove flushes- I am not sure how often this is true- sounds like it is less true than he thinks actually, but I would expect you to cr most flushes to 1600 bet?
b) not allow you to hero fold weak kings- which I think you should if he bets big on this river.
c) at least allow you to make a bluff check shove if you have got to the river with an ace high/ jt type hand
d) simply extract value from 9x, which isn't calling large bets on this river
I think Sauce puts you on a very strong range here, and is also expecting you to be aware of this.
Due to this I think he bets small because he doesnt expect you to call a big bet light + doesnt want to allow some hero folds...... and is also forcing you to cr a wider range of value hands due to his sizing and potentially bluff if you ever get to this spot with air as you can credibly rep flushes +.
He is expecting to make more from your weak/ mid strength hands, more from your super strong hands that he's coolered, and allows you to bluff with your air if you have any.
Hey, im new to this site so sorry for still responding this old video but im watchinig this series and have a couple of questions:
-5m you defend 58o against a minraise and lead the turn on aq5ss7o after Kanu check backs the flop. Given that you have a lot of draws that you want to bluf with here and only so much hands that are good enough to valuebet, isnt 58o too mediocre to put in your betrange? Eventhough Kanu checked back the flop his overall range is still stronger than yours, (i guess you have more tophands tho so idk maybe it does make sense to ues that as a leverage to bet bottum pair ) Do you think its easier to play your hand on the river facing a bet after you check when you led the turn as opposed to facing a river bet if u would checkcall the turn?
-12m K7TTQ 1. You are suprised Kanu did not bet the river with the Q8. You said you thought cbetting with complete air without barreling equity was a mistake so i assume you also check back 7x and Ahi a lot here? If so, eventhough he has a lot of straightdraws that missed, there dont seem to be that many hands Kanu can get value from by leading the river with qx?. 2. Kanu has a lot of missed draws in his turn range that he could bluf the river with, and its hard for you to get a lot of value with your Tx on the turn and river (Because if you dont have the ten he has it a lot so its hard for you to tripple barrel bluf on this texture, therefore easier for him to fold if he has a weak hand and you do in fact bet the turn) Would these 2 arguments be enough reason to check the turn back with some of your Tx and try to incoporate a balanced raising range on the river ?
i have the similar question shulti has regarding 58 hand. thank you
Great video, Phil!
As usual, cool video
I think the q6 river bluff goes ok given you check raised an ace high board on turn before and although you weakened your range for leading turns you strengthened your range for leading river. I haven't seen the result yet, but that's my initial thoughts on seeing it. Having said that, I do see a player like Kanu having set strategies of always checking back some 3rd pair and king high showdown now you have check raised turn before and ready to snap call you. Regardless I think your checked to river range on ace high boards is stronger now that you c/r turn on a similar board so this can even add balance to that here. I see he folds now, think he does fold some because of your c/r.
I pretty much hate the a6 hand :S but you do say 'past Phil' and I see myself doing some silly things like that in the past too so can't judge, just think it's a bit level heavy against someone who is going to play perfect in position, check call flop is fine and then go on to fold later streets and that balances nicely when you have kq> and flush draws that he would probably expect you to play fancy not being a HU NL player. The one good thing in lead/fold flop is we see him cbet the bottom end of his range and could possibly 2 barrel you off your hand but just playing more balanced c/c will do you better vs a good reg like kanu long run because you would exploit him with flush draws played passively if he thinks you play them all aggressive on that flop and with kx and then with hands like sets and stuff you could balance your lead with the bottom of your range and c/c this. Still always fun to watch your game being so out of the box. Interested to see how it plays out, and I like your reasoning for leading flops early on until he adapts to you and I guess in game you probably were thinking this was the beginning of his adaption to your oop flop donking which at the start of the video was part of the initial strategy going into the game.
Just seen this was 2 year old video so not at all relevant to yourself. But for others who want to learn I will leave the comment.
hey Phil, i know you must be busy, but if you keep replying to this videos, i really like to know why are the bet sizing so big in dry flops? i don`t get it... i understand this video is a bit old , but this are really big stakes... trying to think at your level, well, you might never reply to this, but i will really appreciate it if you do, thanks and your site is awesome!!
hey Phil, i know you must be busy, but if you keep replying to this videos, i really like to know why are the bet sizing so big in dry flops? i don`t get it... i understand this video is a bit old , but this are really big stakes... trying to think at your level, well, you might never reply to this, but i will really appreciate it if you do, thanks and your site is awesome!!
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