NL200 Tricky spot with nut flush on paired board
Posted by R0b5ter
Posted by
R0b5ter
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 Tricky spot with nut flush on paired board
BN: $421.22
SB: $211.90
BB: $200
UTG: $233.75
LJ: $214.32
HJ: $201
CO: $217.88 (Hero)
SB: $211.90
BB: $200
UTG: $233.75
LJ: $214.32
HJ: $201
CO: $217.88 (Hero)
Preflop
($3.00)
(7 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
K
UTG raises to $5, LJ folds, HJ folds, Hero calls $5, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG raises to $5, LJ folds, HJ folds, Hero calls $5, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Sometimes 3betting, Sometimes calling.
Flop
($13.00)
7
A
5
(2 Players)
UTG checks,
Hero bets $8,
UTG calls $8
Betting with the nuts
Turn
($29.00)
7
A
5
A
(2 Players)
UTG checks,
Hero bets $20,
UTG raises to $64,
Hero calls $44
When I get check/raised I find it hard to put villain on that many boats since he would have played sets/2p differently on the flop? But then again what bluffs does he have here? I guess he can be doing it with worse flushes and maybe trips although that line feels very bad?
River
($157.00)
7
A
5
A
9
(2 Players)
UTG bets $102.05,
Hero calls
Once I call the turn I guess I'm almost always calling the river but villains low river agr% and villains bet sizing makes me wonder. Then again the nut flush is pretty high in my range. I'm not always calling 55 in these positions and usually not A7s, A9s and A5s so that leaves some rare random boats, 77 and the rest flushes and trips.
Bonus question: What's villains range?
Bonus question 2: What's villains exact hand ( I called)
Bonus question: What's villains range?
Bonus question 2: What's villains exact hand ( I called)
INFO ON VILLAIN: Villain is a Reg that is kind of non orthodox. He plays exploitably and does things like 4bet shove 77 in SB vs BB etc.
This is a fullring table and almost all stats are from FR. Relevant stats on villain..
20/16
Open UTG: 18%
Cbet Flop: 35%
Check/Fold flop when didn't cbet: 63%
CR Flop: 8%
CR Turn: 11%
Flop Agr%: 33
Turn Agr%: 29
River Agr%: 22
Loading 20 Comments...
Now that I know you play full ring, I don't think we can be buddies anymore. :(
Anyway, this depends on your opponent.
An 18% opener has every set in his range, but not every A7s I think.
He has to be checking a set or two pair OOP to make you want to fold here.
Checking those hands is actually pretty solid because:
-He wants to be uncapped on board pairs
-You're not flatting many offsuit hands CO vs superfullringUTG, so you usually have a flush or no draw (unless you have a pair or AK)
If you think your opponent does this a lot, you should lean more towards folding.
KQs is a significantly worse bluffcatcher than KJs, because he has some valuecuts in his range, and some blocker c/r bluffs.
Another consideration is that a lot of his boats probably want to c/r river. Especially the ones blocking your calling range.
I assume you're not flatting 55/77/A5/A7/A9 in this spot, so the nut flush has to be a call here.
I immediately had to "like" this post after the first sentence, but I was sure that the rest would support this like and I was right. :)
Most people play a lot of FR because they like to make value hands and bet them, and fold when the board looks bad for their hand ;)
I don't see how we fold.
folding would be pretty exploitable, so without a read I wouldn't do it. And posting here means you didn't have the read ;) Of course I'd start noting his turn x/r range for similar spots because it could be that an exploitable fold is in order for the future.
Chael, I had to come out of the closet. Unfortunately this was what I was afraid of. To my defence I play a mix of FR, 6max and even some HU at times. So I guess I kind of like all forms of the game. Like a bi-gamimg lover. But if that's not good enough for you I guess I can't do much.
Concerning the hand. Very good advice. Looking at it today I actually think the interesting part and probably what I will learn from is villains flop range. In game I pretty much discarded a lot of boats since I didn't see him playing them like that on the flop. Now I really do see that it is well played of him to in fact check back a lot of sets on the flop. His actual hand was Ad5d.
Jim, yeah folding is for sure exploitable. And I didn't have the read to pull it off. I guess I was looking for some advice given the stats I provided and if they could maybe give a clue but I understand it wasn't enough. Still glad I posted it though since I got to learn something.
In thinking about this hand the biggest problem I'm running into is figure out what hands he can use as bluffs when x/r'ing the turn after taking this line. With us having the K and J of clubs, I guess something like QcX is possible, but that can't be more than a few combos. I don't think he's going to have many 9c8x type hands that peel the turn with equity and then try to bluff the turn. Would he x/r the turn with worse flushes? Would he x/r AX without a boat trying to bluff you off a flush? His stats certainly don't suggest that kind of aggression.
I'm starting to wonder if we can make an exploitable fold simply because villain won't have a bluff range in this spot on the turn. And his value range is going to be ahead of our hand.
frankly I really hate villains line with his hand. Since I can't come up with a bluff range he just needs to be protecting his x/c'ing flop range on the turn by x/c'ing again, and then he can x/jam the river.
I actually dont think its bad to cbet 77,55 here because i guess your CO calling range againts the UTG OR has a some Ax too like AJs, AQo, AK, and we dont block those... A5 its ok to chek here given the reasons that Chael said but i guess theres more value on cbetin 55-77 here
Yes and because of that AA has to be the best set to check?
I donno, I'd just fold. I don't think he plays QTcc/JTcc like this more than 5% of the time, and I think he plays a set like this more like 33-50% of the time. I don't think he's bluffing often when you hold KJcc, and if he's bluffing it'd have to be with something odd like TcTx which seems unlikely. You'll play all of your boats exactly like this, making his marginal bluffs even scarier to pull the trigger with than normal.
is it to nit to fold on the turn? i would fold if vilain x/r turn is tight, which is the case of most of the regs i know
That's a good point. For those advocating an exploit fold on the river, it makes no sense to call the turn (unless somehow he gives up quite often after check-raising in spots where you don't think he's bluffing).
Nice posts
Dario send me a PM and I'll tell you my SN. Rather not out it here.
If I out it here I know you will stalk me and take all my monies with your fancy 6max plays.
Yeah, it's not like we can just look it up somewhere on RIO, within 15 seconds. :D
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